Sack all Fund Managers !

Here is uncontestable proof that all Fund Managers are a waste of time. They are (mostly) lavishly paid for nothing. If that sounds a radical statement, read on.

Its a well known saying in financial circles that you cannot beat the market in the long run. The sage of Omaha, Warren Buffett has been saying this for a long time. In 2007, he publicly laid a bet that the S&P 500 index would outperform hedge funds over a 10 year period. He wagered $500,000 on it to anybody who would take up the challenge, observing cheekily , " "After all, these managers urged others to bet billions on their abilities. Why should they fear putting a little of their own money on the line?"

Surprisingly only one person took up the bet (shame on you hedge fund industry). Protege Partners handpicked a  portfolio of hedge funds. And the wager was on - the S&P 500 against this handpicked pool of hedge funds.

Ten years ended on 31 Dec 2017. And guess who won ? The hedge fund pool gained 22% over 10 years. The S&P 500 rose 85%. No contest ! Buffet won a handsome amount and promptly donated it to the charity,  Girls Inc of Omaha.

There's a big lesson to everybody who is saving and investing. In the long run you cannot beat the market index. Repeat after me, In the long run you cannot beat the index. Repeat again, In the long run you cannot beat the index. Write it out 1000 times.

And yet, we listen to advice from friends. To tips. We hire investment managers. Fund Managers design all sort of esoteric funds and write research reports on how their funds are outperforming the market. A million online portals exist that cater to advice on investment. All of them charge a fee. All of them get handsomely paid.  

Instead follow the advice of Warren Buffet (for free; no fees charged). Simply invest in an index fund - the S&P 500 if you are in the US, the Footsie if you are in the UK, the Nifty if you are in India. A fund that will charge minimum fees to simply hold the basket of securities exactly mimicking the index. And then forget about it. Come back after 10 or 20 or 30 years. You would have made more money than anybody else. It's as simple as that.

There's only one slight problem. Warren Buffet has beaten the S&P Index handsomely in the 50 odd years he has been at the helm of Berkshire Hathaway !

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I should have the right to vote out Trump

I am an Indian citizen. I have no right to vote in the US elections. That's fine - US citizens can make their own choices on who to govern them. But when the US starts passing laws that affect the world, expects global compliance and which  have global consequences, then I am not prepared to keep quiet.

Nowhere is the US effect more on other country citizens than in the area of finance. If it starts a war, as it did in Iraq, at least I am not affected too much and its unlikely that the US will start a war with India. But Trump, by the act of trying to roll back Dodd Frank,  is directly affecting me and is therefore fair game in being virulently criticised.

Dodd Frank what ? Yes that's a fair question as unless you are a student of economics you may not have come across the Dodd Frank Act. Here's the context in layman terms

- Remember the financial crisis of a decade ago. It was caused by global financial behemoths (mainly US based) going crazy
- Post the crisis, the Obama administration enacted the Dodd Frank Act to govern the conduct of financial institutions. Massive compliance requirements were brought in and severe restrictions and policing was introduced on what they could and could not do.
- At the time, the Republican Party was in the phase of "Hell No". Therefore the law was not passed on a bipartisan basis. It was mostly a Democratic Party legislation.
- Republicans hated it, largely because they hated anything Obama did. The big finance companies and banks absolutely loathed it.
- The law is complex, fiddly, adds huge costs of compliance and is an absolute nuisance for those in the finance business. All true.  But we have seen what havoc they can wreck on the world if they are let loose. So their complaints should simply be met with a stonewall.
- This is one perfect example of a bad law being infinitely better than no law.
- The consequence of another financial meltdown is that I, an Indian citizen, will have to pay for it even though Indian financial institutions played absolutely no part in creating the mayhem. Like it or not there's no "Buy American" in finance. Finance is global.

Trump is now trying to loosen the provisions of the Dodd Frank Act.  Thankfully he cannot repeal it as he needs 60 votes in the US Senate and he does not have them as the Democrats are now the party of "Hell No". But he can dilute it considerably and that's what he is starting to do. An Executive Order came out on Friday. Thankfully for now,  the Order is just asking somebody to do something , as most Executive Orders thus far have been.  Nothing really has happened.

But it will happen. Trump's cabinet and advisers are full of Wall Street types. They have a vested interest in undoing the Act .  They must be resisted with every force. And I'll loudly call for Trump to be resisted on this one. As should you, whatever nationality you are. It affects you and me.

Dodd Frank has lots of faults. It's 2300 pages long. That alone is enough to tell you that Ramamritham has run amok. BUT, before anybody tries to do anything with it, he has to prove that it will improve controls and not dilute it.

For, you see, if you want to be really scared, do not think of nuclear war with North Korea. Or Arctic melt down. Or an asteroid hitting the earth. Get mortally terrified with just this one statistic. The total value of financial derivatives in the world at this moment is some $1.5 quadrillion. By comparison the world's  GDP is $80 trillion

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On Friday, the world shook

Last Friday, the world shook. You can be forgiven for not noticing, for, it was the business world that shook. GE announced it was going to virtually sell all of GE Capital. 

GE is one of the, if not THE greatest company on earth. It is the old fashioned industrial conglomerate making everything from aircraft engines to medical equipment. It is known for its legendary business leaders, Reginald Jones, then Jack Welch and then Jeff Immelt. It is known for its excellence in management - it is really the business school where America's future CEOs are produced.  It is the leader of many management trends of the future - Six Sigma, Outsourcing to India ....... you name it and GE was probably the first mover.

All that is fine, but in reality, GE was what it was because of GE Capital. For a long time it contributed 50% of the group profits. Although technically not a bank, GE Capital is one of America's largest "banks". Just before the financial crisis, you would have had to question whether GE was really an industrial company - a full 60% of its profits came from GE Capital.

And then the financial crisis hit. GE, yes even GE, had to resort to a government "bailout" in form of $130 bn of loan guarantees. Suddenly, being a big financial institution was bad news. GE's share price tanked and it lost its coveted AAA rating which it had had for 40 years. The jewel in the crown was sudenly turned into a lump of coal.

GE Capital turned around. Of course it would, given the outstanding management talent at its disposal. It is back to being very profitable and last year contributed more than 40% to GE's profits.  But there are two lasting legacies - one is that GE became a SIFI" , the dreaded tag of a "Systematically Important Financial Institution" , which essentially is a sticker from the US government that it was too big to fail. SIFIs are subject to incredibly strict government requirements,  tight regulation and surveillance post the financial crisis. The second legacy was GE's share price. In 2007 it was $42. Today, despite the resurrection of GE Capital, it is $25 or so. The market is simply scared of large financial institutions and the risks they pose.

GE did what it does best - take a hard decision. It has been announcing its intention to trim down GE Capital for quite a while. It had started to spin off bits and pieces. But on Friday, it announced a virtual disposal of GE Capital. It would sell off almost everything over two years and hold only the parts of GE Capital that were intimately tied to its industrial business - like aircraft leasing. The mighty GE is shrinking. It will become a smaller conglomerate. And it will become an industrial group once again.

This is a big big move in the world of business and finance. But you may not have read about it at all in the papers. Its not as exciting as Justin Bieber's latest antics, or if you live in my country, Anushka Sharma !!

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Borrow at negative interest rates ? What has the world come to

Sometimes the world of finance is utterly incomprehensible to , well, even finance guys. Take for instance what has been happening in Europe.

A few governments in Europe have been issuing short term bonds carrying negative interest rates. That means you pay for the privilege of lending to the government ! Even Spain (the country tottering on a default a couple of years ago) has done this. But these worthies, which include Germany, Austria and Finland as well,  issued only short term debt like this. 

Switzerland has this week taken it to a different level.  It has issued 10 years bonds at negative interest rates. TEN YEAR BONDS. The first country in the world to do so.  And it was handsomely oversubscribed.

So what is happening ? Why would any idiot pay to lend money.  Doesn't it turn everything we know about finance upside down ?

We are in completely uncharted territory and nobody knows what the implications are. Borrowing binges are likely. Will banks now start to charge you for depositing money into your account ?

Part of the  "logic"  of the people buying these negative interest bonds is as follows

• When interest rates fall, bond prices go up (Its too technical to explain in layman terms, but take this for a fact)

• They are expecting interest rates in Europe to fall further

• When that happens the prices of these bonds will rise. They will sell and make a profit !

Of course, in the long run some idiot will be left holding a pile of worthless shit. But finance is all about the short term (alas, becoming extremely short term). Who cares for the sucker in the long run.

Very clever. If only all the fantastic brains who are thinking up incomprehensible ideas in finance were to turn their minds to solving some of the world's more real problems ...........

By the way, if you are in IT, here's a golden opportunity, not unlike Y2K. Bank's IT systems are not tailored to deal with a minus sign in the interest column.  Have to rewrite millions of lines of code ........

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Wonga Wonga

If you are a Brit, you know Wonga very well. If you aren't, you probably have not heard of them. Ed Miliband, Britain's opposition leader even called the ruling government's philosophy, the "Wonga economy". This post is a continuation of my struggle with moral dilemmas -  its been that sort of a time these days. What was black and white  long ago,  now, appears to be impossible shares of grey - far more than fifty, if you must know !

Who or what is Wonga ?  Wonga is a provider of  something called payday lending - a concept very familiar to those of us who came from humble beginnings. Wonga gives small amounts of credit for extremely short periods - until the next pay day. It helps poor families tide over until the next salary comes. The maximum amount you can borrow is £ 1000 and the maximum period you can borrow upto is 30 days. Loan evaluation and grant is extremely quick (has to be , isn't it) . Sounds very good. So what's the catch ?

The catch is that the interest rate works out to  some 5000% per annum. Yes, the number of zeroes is correct and there is no mistake in the decimal point. Five or six thousand percent per annum. Except that when you charge it, say for 18 days, it doesn't seem to amount to much in absolute money.
On the face of it, you can't fault Wonga. They are extremely efficient in processing and disbursing loans ; often on the same day. They don't hide the interest rate or the charges you have to pay. Their website couldn't have been more clearer on this - they say 5853% clearly  (credit card companies might wish to learn a thing or two from them). So , they are not cheating anybody. They are upfront with the costs, deliver exactly what they say and as a consumer, you have every right to take them or not go anywhere near them.
On the other hand, you can argue that if ever there was a better example of usury, you would be hard pressed to find it. 5000 % ?? Does anybody need to buy anything at all borrowing moneys at 5000% interest. ? This is what is getting Ed Miliband's goat - the culture of borrowing at ridiculous costs to buy things you don't really need. Or at least you wouldn't die if you didn't have them. Yes there may be emergencies , for which such financing is a boon, but outside of that, do you really need it. Remember, this is the UK, where the NHS makes sure you get free medical care; so can there really be an emergency outside of the medical arena ?
This is , of course, not unique to the UK. In India, the local pawn broker performs exactly the same function. Judging by the numbers of people who make use of pawn brokers, Wonga and the like, there is a big consumer need for such service - interest rates be damned.
Herein is my dilemma. There is a consumer need and this is being filled transparently, legally and efficiently , at least by Wonga. If this were banned, it would only drive the providers of such a service underground and result in probably far worse terms. (Indian governments who banned micro finance might want to think about it).  At the same time, don't consumers need protection from usury. And should we not be discouraging a culture that  wants immediate luxuries and pays for it by borrowing -  the same culture that sees each nation saddled with huge debt.   But who am I to say what is a luxury and what is a necessity ? A poor man who cannot afford it, but  borrows to go on a holiday may be called an idiot. But then, he has to have some happiness in life. So, by what and whose standards should we judge. Should we allow the free market to operate and whoever wants to do whatever can happily do so, even if he is digging his own grave ?  But aren't there undesirable social trends that we should be actively fighting against - isn't that why we don't allow free drugs .... I am in a whirl.  HHEELLPP !!

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T I N A

If there was, the dollar would be kaput. But there is really no alternative. So it has to be the dollar as the world's reserve currency.

It would be useful to go back to basics and understand what a currency really is.  A currency is really nothing more than a piece of paper backed by the promise of  a government. If you believe in the promise of the government , you hold that currency. If not, it is worthless. Remember the promise is only an act of faith - there is no backing of gold or a real asset behind the currency. Take out an Indian rupee note - any rupee note. It will say "I promise to pay the bearer the sum of xxx rupees" under the seal of the government of India. That's what it is - a promise.

Governments have the licence to print money. But if they simply keep printing on, it will lose its value. Beyond a point, the population will simply lose faith in that currency and resort to barter or to some other currency. That is precisely what happened in Zimbabwe sometime back - the Zim $ lost all value and the US $ became the de facto currency.

When it come to international trade and countries holding reserves, the only real currency of faith is the US dollar. Because the world had, and still has, the maximum faith in the US government above all. But that faith has been seriously eroded in the last two years thanks to antics in the US Congress. If there was an alternative, many would have fled the dollar. But there isn't. The Euro is on an even worse footing than the dollar - which country is the backer of the Euro ? Germany ? France ?  for there is no country called Europe. The Japanese Yen inspires very little confidence. The Chinese Yuan ?? - well the world has to go a long way before that happens - is everybody prepared to trust the Chinese government more than any other ?

China has called for a new global reserve currency. It has to, for after all, it is the largest lender to the world. Easy to say. But what will that reserve currency be ? And which government, or governments, will back it . And how can we trust that any more than the US dollar.

So there really is no alternative. But that should give those in the governance of the United States food for thought. The dollar retains its pre eminence only because the others are worse. Trust is hard to earn, but easy to lose. Those doing the antics  in the US for the last few weeks ( actually for the last four years) have done much to erode that trust. But the problem lies deeper. The US has been printing money like there was no tomorrow, for quite some time. It has come to the brink of default once before, and is now engaged in the same brinksmanship again. There is increasing evidence that sound economics is becoming a rare feature of the management of the US economy.

I am no economist and learned academicians ( are you there J !) have to design the future global reserve currency. But whatever that might be, it all boils down to trust. Alas, there is little to trust in today's world. Whose word can you trust when the only economy that is practiced is that with the truth.

The US dollar note says "In God we trust". I'm not sure if the irony strikes the governing class in that country.

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A Cypriot Tragedy

Tragedies are usually associated with Greece - a tribute to the richness of its theatre in the 5th Century BC. Over the weekend, you could be forgiven if you changed your tastes to a Cypriot tragedy. For that's exactly what has happened - albeit in the more prosaic world of economics.

 

These are the facts. Cyprus is another Eurozone country in deep trouble. It needed a bailout. So far, nothing unusual. A bailout was duly announced over the weekend. It was the terms of the bailout that sent a jolt reverberating through the world of economics. The EU is bailing them by about €13 bn (chickenfeed by the standards of bailout). But the conditions of the bailout are that all bank depositors would be levied a tax of between 6.75% and 9.9%. That means on Tuesday when banks opened, all depositors would lose that amount instantaneously.

 

The genesis of the problem is, alas, not new. Cyprus is a very small country. In boom times, it went berserk pushing its financial industry, positioning itself as an island finance centre. That's fine, but it just went way over the top. Cypriot banks had made loans to outsiders equivalent to 8 times the country's GDP. Worse still, a lot of those was to Greece its neighbor. When Greece began to go under, Cyprus was given an almighty whack. The bailout was then a question of when, and not if.

 

Another actor muddling the issue is Russia.  Of the € 68 bn bank deposits which are going to get a "haircut" (the tax referred to above) , a full € 21 bn comes from Russian companies. We shall not speculate where from this close affinity of Russia came from - let us just say that the word "money laundering" comes to mind. Now the Russians will instantly lose € 2bn. Enter Vladmir Putin. He is howling against the "$%^&* Germans who are the orchestrators of the bailout.

 

What about Joe Public in Nicosia. Even if you had say € 100 Euros in the bank, tomorrow it is only € 93. If ever there was a recipe for street riots, this is it.

 

And what about nervous bank depositors in other troubled countries - say Spain or Italy. Tomorrow it might be their turn. Only an idiot will keep his money in a bank anymore if you are an European. Take it out IMMEDIATELY. Dig a hole and bury it in your backyard. Keep it under the pillow. But don't deposit it in a bank even if a gun was pointed at your head.

 

What a mess. The world badly needs a new economic order. Fire all economists. Go back to the basics of countries balancing their budgets. Living within their means. Curbing the excesses in the banking and finance industry ruthlessly. It will be a prolonged period of pain. But when the clouds disperse, it will be a saner and fresher world. 

 

This, of course, is a Utopian dream - which leader is going to tell the truth to his voters. And even if he did, which voter is going to accept it. We shall stumble along from one crisis to another.

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Bye Bye New York Stock Exchange

OK - the title is pure hyperbole. The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) is going nowhere. But the company that owns NYSE is just being bought over. The curious part of the story is that the acquirer does not really want the NYSE, but it comes as part of the package- so he has to take it !

Here's the deal. NYSE is part of a conglomerate called NYSE Euronext. The conglomerate consists of NYSE itself, Euronext, which is a combination of three European stock exchanges and Liffe which is a London based derivatives exchange. NYSE and Euronext are ugly spinsters nobody wants. The beauty amongst the beasts is Liffe. For it is the sexy new hottie - a derivatives exchange.

And therein lies the story. In the modern day casino , that is finance , equity exchanges like NYSE are worthless as businesses. Margins are supposedly low. Stock exchanges are the places where almost all companies that require capital list and that's where investors channel their savings into productive investment. One would have thought that  the raison d'être for financial markets was to fulfill that objective, but obviously I am an old foggie.

In today's world, the money is all in running commodities exchanges,  derivatives markets etc - not boring old equity. The acquirer is a company called ICE that did not exist before 2000 (for the record NYSE was founded in 1817). ICE purely handles derivatives trading. The career of Jeffrey Sprecher, the CEO of ICE says it all. He started his career building power plants.  But he realised that there was more money (in facts tons more money) playing on financial contracts relating to power than in generating power itself. So he started ICE , obscurely in Atlanta, in 2000. See where he has got to in 12 years.

We've now come to a stage where even the NYSE is an unattractive prize - in fact positively repellant. Given a choice Mr Sprecher would probably spin off NYSE, or sell it off somewhere or simply forget about it. Unfortunately that is politically simply unthinkable. So he has to live with it and make pious noises of how important it is.

Its a symptom of where the world is going.  This post is one sided and biased (whoever said that a blog has to be objective !). Derivatives markets are not all evil and equity markets are not all saints. Both serve useful economic purposes. But you can see where this is headed. Esoteric, ununderstandable financial structures are getting to be more important than the underlying asset itself. That's why, a wise old fox from Omaha, back then in 2003, called derivatives a weapon of mass destruction.

Many years ago, when the world was a simpler place and when this blogger was a young man (!), he went to 11 Wall Street, entered the visitors gallery of NYSE and gazed at the trading floor in awe.  Little did he know that not in the too distant future, this lovely lady was going to be thrown out into the street as an ugly old crone.

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Even crooks deserve a fair deal

Remember Jérôme Kerviel  ?  OK, very excusable if you have forgotten who he is. He was the rogue trader who almost brought Société Générale ( a reputed French bank) to its knees. This happened in 2008. Kerviel was a trader who punted like crazy in the casino, that is euphemistically called financial markets - he was making gigantic bets that involved European stock index futures. The whole thing unraveled, he was fired, Société Générale tottered and ultimately lost € 4.9 bn.

 

Criminal proceedings were launched against Jérôme Kerviel  and he was sentenced to prison and a fine. He appealed, and, on Friday, lost his appeal. What caught me was the quantum of the fine. He was fined € 4.9 bn, the quantum of the loss that Société Générale incurred.  A fine of € 4.9 bn ???? Kerviel has no money and is unemployed and probably unemployable. How on earth is he expected to pay  € 4.9 bn ?

 

This is outright crazy. The judges have fallen hook line and sinker to Société Générale's assertions that it didn't know what was happening and that Kerviel acted alone. PPPPlease ........ That, to put it mildly, is nonsense.  His bosses must have been cheering loudly as long as he made profits and have thrown the book at him, when the whole thing collapsed.  The bank didn't know ??????? Baloney.

 

Société Générale , and the judge, argue that the massive fine is to prevent him from capitalizing on his story by writing a book (which he has done) or making a movie. That is extreme logic. Every crook tries to make money from his infamy. Jeffrey Archer wrote a whole book about his prison experience and sold God knows how many copies. The fault is not that of the crook - the fault is with those who buy the book or go see the movie. 

 

Kerviel is not your ordinary villain. Sure he broke company rules and did unauthorized trading. But then a few thousand bankers have done the same . He made no money personally - even his bonus wasn't obscene. He was a case of gambling instincts gone completely out of control. Does he deserve a € 4.9 bn fine ?

 

The logic that employees are personally responsible to make good the losses that arise if they violate the rules is a dangerous one. Sometimes company rules are not explicit. Sometimes bosses nod and wink when they expect employees to do things that are shall we say, fifty shades of grey ! If I were to calculate the possibility of personal liability, when taking a business decision, I would never make a decision in the first place. Something like this is what is happening in Indian government circles today - no babu is making any decision for fear that Kejriwal will allege that he is corrupt. Everything has ground to a complete halt.

 

It is a reflection of the anger against bankers that public opinion has no sympathy for Kerviel. Nobody, but a few busybodies have raised a whimper. I however think this is an outrageous court decision. Kerviel deserves to be punished. He deserves to go to jail. But he should not be fined € 4.9 bn.

 

It is a mark of civilized society that even crooks are given a fair deal.

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Spare a thought for the poor Iranians

There is economic cataclysm going on in Iran. What guns and rhetoric have failed to do might be achieved by grubby old economics - the downfall of the nut cases who have been ruling Iran for sometime.

The Iranian rial has plunged into free fall. It declined by 25% in one week in October against the US dollar. Since the beginning of 2011 it has fallen by 70+%. It was some 10,000 rial to the US $ in 2011. Its now around 30,000 rials to the US $. The rial is now virtually worthless. Inflation by official estimates is some 25%, in reality more like 70%. There is economic chaos.

Why is this important ? You only have to look towards  the street protests that have sprung up in Iran to see how this is affecting everybody in Iran - the rich, the poor, and yes, even the mullahs. But, wait a minute. Iran is oil rich, right ? It should be rolling around in wealth. And yet, the country  is in deep crisis and the population is suffering.  Why ?

If ever there was an example of how a rotten government can destroy its people, it is Iran.  By all rights Iran should be a rich country. It is an ancient and rich culture and full of extremely bright people. And above all, it is swimming in oil. But unfortunately it has a government that must surely compete with North Korea and Zimbabwe for the title of the worst government in the world. It exports terrorism, it dips its fingers into every trouble spot in the region - it finances the Hezbollah in Lebanon, it backs the Syrian regime, it supports the Hamas in Gaza........ It is trying its best to build a nuclear bomb.

Consequently it has pissed off the world. Crippling economic sanctions have been the result. Nobody bar Russia and China, and to some extent India, is trading with it. It has been kicked out of SWIFT - the international banking settlement system. Therefore everybody, including Russia and China have to deal with it via the back door.  If anybody trades with Iran he has to virtually receive suitcases of cash in return. That's not easy to do on scale. So even exporting oil has become difficult.

End result is that the rial is plunging like a stone. So everything becomes incredibly more expensive. Food prices are doubling. Luxuries, which might even be necessities in other parts of the world, are becoming unthinkable. The common Iranian, like most others in the world, cares two hoots about religious purity and dogma. He wants to fill his stomach. And then wants to buy a mobile phone. After that he wants to post on Facebook. Simple.  If you deny that from him for too long and make him slide backwards, his patience will break and he will burn the beards of those who are stopping him. 

So for Israel and the hawks in America, here is a pleasant thought. You don't have to nuke Iran to stop them from acquiring nuclear weapons. The rial is doing the job for you brilliantly. With a bit of journalistic license I say, the bill is mightier than the bomb !

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The emperor's new clothes

Somebody has to say this. Like the kid from the proverbial Hans Christian Andersen's tale, who exclaims that the emperor is actually naked, I will go ahead and say it. Stock markets have become a weapon of mass destruction.

The original purpose of stock markets was to become efficient allocators of capital. Capital was always scarce and economics needed a mechanism where capital would be pooled from investors and allocated to the most efficient users of capital. Voila, the stock market was born. It is important to remember why this mechanism was created in the first place.

One of the most important benefits that stock markets provided was liquidity. Investors needed liquidity to be able to withdraw their investment without affecting the company that they invested in. Contrast this with property markets which are not very liquid - try selling a property, especially in India. Liquidity was , and is, provided in stock markets by speculators. They performed the useful function of ensuring liquidity and hence were tolerated even though speculation climbed to above 90% of all trades in stock markets.

But witness what has happened in the last 10 years. Most of the trading is now done by computers against computers. By automatic trading ; not by human decisions. A concept called High Frequency Trading has come into being. Big trading firms have invested in creating a competitive advantage where their automatic trading computers can gain a few nano seconds advantage over competition. I am not exaggerating  - a few nano seconds advantage. A millisecond is considered an eon in high frequency time. Two critics of the way stock markets function today - Sal Arnuk and Joseph Saluzzi have been laughed at for proposing a solution that firms honour the prices they offer for a share for at least 50 milliseconds.

Software is vulnerable, as all of us know. Knight Capital, an American Equity broker, started using a new software programme to execute its trades on 1 August. Within one hour of the market opening errant trading had cost the firm $440m. It virtually went bankrupt and only escaped from near death at a huge cost and will never be the same again. Such events are now becoming not uncommon. In May 2010, The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 1000 points in minutes and for a brief period Accenture was trading at 1c a share !

Such high frequency trading is not performing any usual social function. They are not based on a company's future or a view on the economy. This is pure gambling based on tiny changes in price. The amounts of money are so huge - several times the GDP of the world, that a catastrophic systemic failure is a real real risk. It almost seems to be a question of when, and not if.

I submit that the original purpose of stock markets has got grossly distorted and weakened. Before a meltdown occurs, it is important to go back to the roots - stock markets have to be reborn as efficient allocators of capital and not a Las Vegas on steroids. Its better to do this before the calamity hits, rather than after.

I say this loud and clear. Almost everybody on Wall Street, Dalal Street, etc etc, is stark naked. Unfortunately, that is not a pleasant sight - potbellies, warts and all. What does it say about our society, when its best brains are running naked and looking as ugly as hell. This naked horde might do well to remember , as The Economist points out, the advice of Warren Buffett, the most successful investor in history who says that his ideal holding period for shares is for ever.

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There's something very rotten in Finance

Can a whole industry be rotten ? Definitely not. As in any field, you should expect the good, the bad and the ugly. But increasingly it is difficult to spot anything good with the financial services industry. Consider the latest scandal to hit the headlines - the manipulation of LIBOR by Barclays and 20 other banks.

LIBOR (which stands for London inter bank offer rate) is one of the prime interest rate benchmarks in the world. Many interest rates are fixed at LIBOR plus a premium. LIBOR should therefore be an impartial market rate based on which a whole lot of other transactions revolve. But it now comes out that Barclays has been manipulating this rate for a while. A fine of $450m has been imposed on Barclays and a probe is on with 20 other banks.

I know greed is a universal vice and an industry that directly deals with money is especially vulnerable to an overdose of greed. Yet it would be difficult to find an industry that has so allowed its core to rot . One after another, examples of insane risk taking, outright fraud, manipulation and criminal behaviour is coming to light. Action by governments has been patchy at best.

There is almost no  financial player that has remained untouched. Mention banks and every bank of renown has been in trouble. Mention insurance and the likes of AIG and Marsh & McLennan come to mind. I don't even need to comment on the likes of hedge funds and other less savoury players. Even the most reputable names in the business (Barclays is one of them) have been caught in wrongdoing. How can this be - a whole industry cannot be bad ?

The best brains in the world go into finance. And this is the field that seems to have the deepest rot.  Says something about the value systems of bright people. The state of the industry has gone beyond outrageous levels and has to be stopped.

Draconian action has to be launched by governments against the industry. It has to be made the most boring business in the world - so much so that the best minds recoil from going there.  All the scare mongering that capital for business would dry up should be discarded - there is enough capital in the world and like water, it will find its way to the best businesses. If some forms of risk management become impossible - it doesn't matter; the plethora of so called hedging products have created more risk than provided insulation against them.

The Reserve Bank of India stands out , amongst global central banks, by being bulldogish and refusing to allow any form of sex appeal in Indian banking. They have tried their best to keep Indian banking a boring business. By and large Indian financial institutions have escaped from major disasters - we have the RBI to thank for this. 

I hate to say this, but even Ramamritham has his uses !

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How the stock market works

"Company X crushes estimates; Shares Soar" screams the headlines in Forbes,  a respected business magazine. "Company X profits slip 35% as spending continues"  proclaims the equally loud headlines of The Wall Street Journal, a respectable business newspaper. Both refer to the same company - Amazon - and the same piece of news, the first quarter results of the company. Flummoxed ?? Read on.

Can both headlines be right ?? Surely they can't.  Only in the rarified world of finance , especially the even more ionospheric world of stock markets can both statements be true. Yes.

You see, company performance and movement of share prices is based on "expectations" and not on reality. Expectations of whom, you may ask ?  Of a unique sub species of the human race called homo sapiens analystensis (hereinafter referred to as HSA).

Cut to business school. Some of the best brains in the land want to "go into finance" after they graduate. Their ambition is to mutate into this unique sub species I referred to earlier. There are distinct variants even in the subspecies that you can aspire to become - HS Brokerensis, HS Sellsideanalystensis, HS Buysideanalystensis, HS Fundmanagerensis, etc etc.

All of them have only one aim in life. They aspire to make predictions of the future. These predictions are called "expectations" or "estimates" in the lingo. Never mind that humanity has not yet discovered how to foretell the future. All through history, many quacks have attempted to do this - astrologers, palmists and charlatans of various kinds. To this tribe has now been added the aforementioned HSA. Their tool is not a parrot or a horoscope, but an abomination called the Excel spreadsheet. For their quackery, HSAs earn only in seven figures.

Based on their wise gazings, they come up with an Estimate (with a capital E). Then they all flock together , total up all their Estimates, divide it by the number present and come up with a "Consensus Estimate". This is the magic target for the company to beat. This is what Amazon beat by 4X prompting the Forbes headline.

Companies are of course wise to all this. They cuddle up to this species. They ply them with booze in events called Analysts Meet. They provide them with "guidance" so that the fertile minds of the great members of HSA can be fertilised. Sharp readers may note that along with other humans, company honchos are equally clueless about the future. But that doesn't stop them from pontificating. They  whisper, allude, provide crystal balls etc etc so that the sainted HSA can come up with the "right" Estimate. Then they spend all their life trying to beat the millstone around their neck.

The stock market formula is simple. Beat the Estimate and your share price will soar. Miss the Estimate and the share price will tank. Never mind if you made a profit or a loss. Never mind that you sold more or less. Never even mind if you made cornflakes or condoms.

Now you see why both Forbes and Wall Street Journal were right. Amazon's profits actually dropped by 35% from last year's first quarter. Signor Bezos continues to thumb his nose at any naysayer and spends money like water (made respectable by calling it investment). But he beat the consensus estimate of the HSA. Not just beat it, but licked it.  

Amazon's share price rose 14% yesterday.

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Frankly, my dear, I don't give a damn

Immortal words from an immortal movie. If you don't know where this quotation is from, click here (excusable because this was before you were born)

I am however writing about more prosaic things. Like the American nomination of Jim Yong Kim for the Presidency of the World Bank. Readers of this blog may recall that I had railed about the practice of nominating an American for the head of the World Bank and an European for the Head of the IMF here. The IMF vacancy came rather suddenly after the antics of Dominique Strauss Kahn. After some pious sermonising about how it wasn't an European stitch up, the post went to Christine Lagarde, another French person !

Now there is a vacancy coming at the top of the World Bank as Robert Zoellick is completing his term. The Americans are now wanting to stitch this up. But its the American they have nominated which is raising eyebrows. Kim who ??

Jim Yong Kim is an eminent American, no doubt. But he is an anthropologist and physician by profession. He is currently the President of Dartmouth College and was the former director of the HIV/AIDS section of the World Health Organisation. He is a highly respected figure in his circles. But he is not a banker. So what's an anthropologist going to do as head of the World Bank.

Convoluted justifications are being given. Apparently it would be good to have a "development expert" as head of the World Bank. Balderdash. Its simply America trying to make it more palatable to have their nominee as the boss. Kim is Korean by descent and is not a white man. They can even pass him as an "Asian". Its just an effective fudge to continue the tradition of stitching up. Or else a more interesting logic might have been in the mind - Bankers are too dangerous to be allowed to run the World Bank (I can begin to have sympathy for such a thought !)

There is some muted opposition to this. A Nigerian and a Colombian are standing against him, but are unlikely to have much of a chance. But the more interesting development is that nobody seems to care. Deafening silence from the chief lender to the world - China. I don't know how to say it in Chinese, but I can almost hear Hu Jintao saying "Frankly, my dear, I don't give a damn" !

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Lie Down Mr Goodwin

Arise Sir Fred, the Queen of England said in 2004 after tapping the kneeling Fred Goodwin lightly on the shoulder with her sword. This archaic ceremony is the conferring of knighthood by the Queen of England. If you are a citizen of the UK or one of its dominions then you can call yourself  "Sir".

Fred Goodwin was the CEO of the Royal Bank of Scotland in its boom years. An unknown, middling bank in Scotland (where's that for Gods sake), he took it to become one of the largest banks in the world. First the acquisition of Natwest, a big British bank much bigger than RBS. And then the mega takeover of ABN Amro, just as the financial crisis was unfolding. The bank was growing wildly through mega acquisitions and was cheered on by all and sundry - the shareholders, the market and even the government, including Gordon Brown, the then Prime Minister of the UK. Hence the knighthood. Sir Fred could do no wrong.

Of course the party couldn't last. It came crashing down with the financial crisis. Sir Fred was axed after the bank reported a loss of £24 bn - the largest in UK corporate history. The UK government had to inject £45 bn to bail out RBS. The public was baying for his blood. He compunded his misery by trying to keep his £16m pension pot - for the years of service he had rendered. Public outcry forced him to give up part of this, although that's an unfair step - if you have to give up your accumulated PF because of a mistake you made, how unfair would it be for you.

Now the UK government has decided to withdraw his knighthood. This is very rarely done. He has for company, Anthony Blunt (a spy), Nicoale Ceausescu, the notorious dictator of Romania and Robert Mugabe, the tyrant of Zimbabwe who were all knighted and the knighthood subsequently withdrawn when it was realised what scoundrels they were. Fred Goodwin is however no scoundrel. The withdrawal was the result of a baying mob (otherwise called the British tabloid press) just wanting to inflict its own brand of punishment.

Fred Goodwin wasn't the first, and certainly won't be the last, to mistime a huge acquisition (ABN Amro) and get killed in the process. He made a bad misjudgement of the extent of the financial crisis - after all who didn't. But he did no crime. He hasn't even been charged, let alone convicted of any wrong doing. If business misjudgement was a crime, each one of us is a criminal. At that time, the shareholders of RBS enthusiastically supported his every move. There are many others who have been conferred knighthoods and were equally in the mess of the financial crisis.

The British are justifiably famous for their sense of honour and fair play. In this instance however, that noble quality seems to have deserted them. Punishing Sir Fred, with Mr Goodwin isn't cricket, old chaps !

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Without Comment

Brilliant article in the Financial Times today. Dripping with sarcasm and wit. Alas its a bit technical and you'll enjoy it immensely if you have a bit of background in finance, but even otherwise its a good read. 

For those not in touch with American politics or high finance -

John Corzine is a former head of Goldman Sachs. He was deposed by Henk Paulson.  Corzine then became a Senator from New Jersey and then Governor. He got defeated in the election in 2010, by Chris Christie who is the current Governor of New Jersey. After his defeat in the election, Corzine became Chairman of MF Global which has just declared Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

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Oh no; Not again

Yet another rogue trader has emerged. This morning is ablaze with the news that UBS (a Swiss bank) could have lost some $2bn on account of the actions of one trader - Kweku Adoboli at its London office. Adoboli has been arrested last night and the details are only slowly emerging.  Nothing is proven as yet , but Adoboli might very well join his illustrious predecessors - Nick Leeson of Barings, Jerome Kerviel of Societe Generale, et al in the hall of Notoriety.

Apparently the losses stemmed from the trader placing bets, using the banks'own money on something called Delta One - trading in financial instruments linked to exchange traded funds. To lose $2bn, the trader must have been trading staggering sums of money. Clearly UBS has egg on its face. Quite apart from the massive loss, questions will be asked about risk management in the bank. How could they let such a big loss build up.

The question to be asked is what on earth banks are doing even indulging in such activities. They are cloaked under the respectable heading of "investment banking", but this is nothing other than pure gambling. Is this what banks should be doing - gambling in esoteric instruments that nobody else would even understand ? Banks think that they can build big risk management systems, but the truth is that traders are incredibly bright and frighteningly sharp and they will  find a way to beat the best of control systems. After all, traders often hold their managers and risk departments in utter contempt and consider it almost a rite of passage to hoodwink them.

The fig leaf that this is all somehow a very respectable activity couched in terminology such as risk management, investment diversification, hedging, providing liquidity and such other gobbledygook must be once and for all removed. Banks, if they wish to indulge in such activities, should label these departments as "Pure unadulterated gambling department", "Better than a Las Vegas casino department", "" The Wild Wild West",  "Punters Inc",   "Rogues' Lounge" , etc etc.

Plain English helps. Free drinks served by scantily clad waitresses roaming up and down the aisle is optional.

And bankers wonder why they are unloved by the public.

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Stop watching the stock market ticker

As stock markets fell on Monday there was the predictable response from governments. Take for example the Indian Finance Minister. He says "we are prepared to address any concern that may arise on account of the present situation".  He should do no such thing. Stock markets should not drive government policy.

Have you noticed that the bleating and braying is all one sided. When markets are rising, nobody wants the government within one million miles of their trying to fill their pockets as fast as possible. When markets are falling , governments should come and "help them". Nonsense. Just as stock markets fell, you see the price of gold skyrocketing. I am yet to hear anybody express concern on where that market is heading.

For that matter, why be only concerned about stock markets ? Why not debt markets. Or, as above, gold markets. Or platinum markets. Or whatever.

Governments should simply adopt the right economic policy for the long term. Of course, they have to react to economic events, but that would be in the form of reacting to say a recession or overheating. Not to stock markets falling.  Stock markets, in the short term, are largely in the hands of speculators. More than 95% of transactions are speculative in nature. They perform a useful economic function - that of providing liquidity. But they need no support and certainly not an ounce of the time of the Finance Minister. If they mint money gambling, good luck to them. If they lose their shirts, well tough luck.

India is not in a bad position in the current situation. Unlike China, its not so dependant on exports and therefore the impact of a possible global recession will be lesser. India's growth will continue to be strong. The falling oil prices is a huge boon ; this can be the solution to controlling inflation, the most serious problem facing the nation today. Speculative inflows may dry up, but investment is not a problem - the country remains one of the most attractive markets in the world. The demographic dividend continues - India has a young population and not a dwindling supply of productive individuals. The Finance Minister has many things on his plate. Controlling corruption. Eliminating wastes and handouts. Restraining the burgeoning national debt. Continuing with reform and remove the current malaise of masterly inactivity. He doesn't need to watch the Sensex. When the shrill, loud, breathless "journalist" from CNBC asks him about it, the correct response should be - Sensex ? What Sensex ?

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Succession at the IMF

Unless you have a visceral hatred of the IMF, you could not have missed all the media coverage of Dominique Strauss Kahn, its boss. The affair has exploded like a nuclear bomb on a number of fronts. Firstly there is the IMF itself, currently deeply involved in the European bailout situation. Secondly it has blown open the French Presidential race - he was the front runner and it was quite possible that Sarkozy would have lost to him in the elections next year. It has called into question Continental European tolerance for sexual profligacy of its leaders - surely the Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi is at least a bit worried.

But this blog must remain a strictly non political one. This post is about the appointment of the new IMF chief - DSK has just resigned today and even if he is acquitted, is unlikely to get his job back.

It has been an utterly shameful arrangement that a cosy understanding exists that the World Bank chief is an American and that the IMF chief is an European.  This is a throwback to the post World War II days when only America and Europe mattered. Its a different world today and yet the old boys club still remains. Its a multi polar world these days, in case you have not noticed. But then old foggies in gentleman's clubs are rarely wont to look outside the window until its too late.

That the head of a major international body is chosen for reasons of nationality rather than merit is simply an unacceptable position. But then, alas, head of major international bodies, are indeed chosen that way. Witness the position of the Secretary General of the United Nations  a succession of colourless personalities have graced this chair. Witness the boss of the EU - can anybody even remember his name. Such are the contortions of world politics. So its futile to expect that merit alone will decide the next head of the IMF.  But there is no harm in at least stating the obvious, however unlikely the chance of it happening.

This is a time to change. The new head of the IMF must simply be the best man for the job. In a time of unprecedented financial and economic challenges, it cannot be anybody but that. Irrespective of whether he is from Timor Leste or from Tuvalu. He must be a world renowned economist and also somebody who has worked in the IMF before - after all its a huge and complex organisation.  He must have a track record of major economic policy achievements on the international stage. He must be a heavyweight - not a puppet who can be strung along.

Step forward Montek Singh Ahluwalia.

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Bernie Madoff vs Ramalinga Raju

Madoff and Raju. Both guilty of gross financial impropriety. On a scale that boggles the mind. Both confessed readily to the wrong they have done. In fact both the cases came to light because the protagonist confessed to it. The heat became too much and they had virtually no choice but to come clean. But therein ends the similarity.

In the case of Madoff, the date was 10 December 2008. He was immediately arrested, but released on bail. His case came to court on 12 March 2009 wherein Madoff pleased guilty. He was sentenced on June 29 to 150 years in jail. So off he went to jail. End of story.

Raju's famous letter of confession came on 7 January 2009. After a few days of drama, he was arrested and sent to jail. But then ..... . Nothing. There is still no conviction in a court of law. In fact, there is no sign of a conviction in a court of law. The company, meanwhile, has bee n resurrected in a text book case of brilliant government and management action. They have even settled the class action suit in the US. But Raju continues to remain an undertrial.

India has an extremely dangerous tendency to "convict" a person by media and not necessarily informed public opinion. A primary construct in a society ruled by law is that a person is innocent until proven guilty. In India, its often guilty until proven innocent. That's why , in the infamous Tihar Jail, there are reportedly more undertrials than convicted criminals. Some undertrials have spent longer time in the jail than what their maximum sentence would have been if they had been convicted.

Both the investigating and judicial systems must hang their head in shame. Raju confessed to his action. He hasn't since retracted his confession or anything to that effect. The accounting fraud was quite simple and , by now, well established. Is it that difficult to bring this to trial and convict ??

Raju, is like any other citizen of the country. He deserves the right to be tried. He should be punished, but only after conviction in a court of law. The President must issue a dictat - bring Raju to trial in a week and complete the trial in a month, If you can't do it, release him and he should walk a free man.

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