A world without oil

The price of oil has been well above $ 100 a barrell for sometime now and there is every likelihood that its going to stay there. Yesterday the Indian government was forced to raise the price of petrol by Rs 5 per litre.  This blogger has railed often against the the largest transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich, from the rest of the world to the Gulf, etc etc. This Sunday, its a light hearted look at the benefits of a world without oil.

Imagine the utopia it shall be. At an instant the road everywhere in the world will become oases of peace. The whole world will become slimmer,  Rajalakshmi will now have to walk, or bike and hopefully an ounce of athleticism will come to her. TV programmes such as the Biggest Loser will cease to exist - instead new programmes such as "how lazy can you be" may become the rage.

Some of blots on humanity will mercifully be consigned to oblivion. Like Heathrow, or O'Hare. And imagine  a world without Air India - sheer bliss. And " On a clear day, you cannot see General Motors".

Bedouins can reclaim the Middle East. Ambulisamma has to return back and monstrosities such as the Burj al Arab can  safely be mothballed.  Bernie Ecclestone and Max Mosley can at last be made bankrupt as the most boring sport in the world - Formula 1 (made most boring thanks to the aforesaid gentlemen) has a complete remake. It shall morph into a bullock cart race which India shall rule, until the Chinese take it into their head that they have to dominate that sport too.

Imagine, no fat tourists, awfully dressed, of indeterminable age and thrusting a camera in the direction of "locals". No visits from  "damagers" (copyright courtsey gils as a synonym for manager), from awfully cold places like Chicago or Tokyo trying to escape the shivers and holidaying in sunnier climes under the guise of inspecting the natives.

And so on and so on. Readers are invited to share their vision of the new world. Each of your thoughts in a para please (I'll transport it from the comments here) and this post will expand into a collage .......

Gils - oil'yam natchathirathula poranthavangallam ippo semma demandla iruppaanga pola. English translation - People born under the ahilyam star sign (a play on Oil) will be in great demand.

Zeno - No Oil means, no need to bargain with autowallahs, no accident causing metro lorries in Chennai :) no car chases in movies :(

Sandhya - well.... as you say, there are many positives of the no oil world - no morning -evening flights and no stale aircraft food - no airhostess with a the artificial smile (works like a mechanical robot - opens and closes at the same speed at the same precision with the same expression!!)

and then, if there were no oil, you would create huge living spaces for many homeless poor - i mean where will all the cars and buses go - some one has to use them up

and then people like Gils would be India's most wanted... i mean on the positive side. that is because - In a world devoid of all fuss and frolic... there are few people who can keep the energy going and lively....

Hema - Ha...no oil means no traffic, no traffic jams, no getting late to office, no office,no need of vacation, more blogging, more reading, more poetry, more morning walks, bliss...

Venkat - 1)No oil means, Indian politics or atleast kerala politics will definetely change. yes millions of gulf living NRI's will turn to vote. also the density of present population in some states will increase with these NRI's return. 2)World may not familiar with the nineth richest man Mukesh. 3)Goverment may increase income tax % to compensate revenue from oil. 4)No wonder still world will run vehicles and air crafts will with water like in steam engines.

RamMmm - Ha! No petroleum derivatives also then. No vaseline et al, no creams of most kinds (fairness creams esp., we can tan-o-tan), no deo sprays ('no babe magnet deo aXe' esp. we may stink, so what!), no dandruff shampoos (hmmm... lets use groundnut/shikakai), no washing powder (back to old smash on stone technique), less pharma products (ayurveda may fill-in), no plastics (yay!, but what do we do without it?, no fertilizers (globally organic), no air-conditioning as no anti-freeze (toast to skin roast!)) gosh!, the dependence on petroleum is starting to look scary. :(

Vishal - The thought of a world without oil is so serene to imagine. Can we indeed go back in time? Aah!

The same puff of fresh air which is otherwise available in the Maidan area of Calcutta early morning, could be felt in other big cities also. NH-8 would be a lovely place to take an evening stroll... oh! nothing can beat that!

IST will be IST then... or may be better than that.

Consider Biogas for home fuel. Water could be treated like water in the country like ours and even in gulf.

Whoa... the world will be a different place then...

Srivats : No oil means we wont get to have the vegetables , milk and other groceries in the nearby mall. We got to create our own plot and start planting vegetables and paddy :)

Deepa : The more I thought of it, the more I realized what a beautiful world its going to be.

Imagine, Gilsu or zeno on bicycles with their gals perched on the front bar. The ladies' hair swaying into their faces with the breeze. Our two heros can throw in some of those romantic songs they keep posting on facebook! I kid you not, the biggest stumbling block in the dating scene these days is the fuel cost. No petrol, we gals dont expect long drives, no bike rides, just simple (cost effective) walks in the parks and watching the sunset by the beaches.

Fresh food everywhere. (Food is a touchy subject for me)! No dreaming of Alphonso mangoes in
Hyderabad, and Banganpalli in Mumbai, or both of these in America. You'd appreciate what you
get locally and learn something we all have completely forgotten these days- 'Contentment'.

I do trust my species to come up with some alternative, if we are pushed to the corner (in fact we already are) . People would look for non-conventional sources of energy. Mr. Tesla may find fame anew (purely my guess). Which would be nice, because, all countries could strive to be self-sufficient, and there would be level playing fields. Uncle Sam would no longer be interested in watching over the ever fighting middle-eastern brethren, and no more of the completely useless gang wars. Everyone would mind their own businesses. Imagine the amount of tax-payer's money freed to be used for good cause. Not that we would stop fighting, 'coz we can fight over something as stupid as river water, but just one BIG issue less!

J : Somehow I visualize a world without oil very differently from the idyllic picture that you paint (have you forgotten Etah?). I imagine a world like some science fiction movie where people will zip in small one-person electric cars and maybe satellite pictures of earth will not have the standard blue and green look but a lot of black on land as the world will be covered in solar panels. And lots of white in the seas as there will huge wind farms - maybe Ramamrithams of the world will mandate that they have to be blue so that google earth's pictures still look pretty. Rajalakshmi will still ride her bike but she will also carry with her a small generator to convert all her cycling into power - not far fetched since a gym in Portland is actually doing it to their exercise machines.

Ambulisamma : All the NRI's would return back,including self and if sensus happens properly India might overtake China. If you consider India it should not be a big problem,we can find alternatives. But think about Gulf and US,the world without petrol will be terrible for them.

Venkatraman : No oil because a barrel of crude oil is $100 today? Come on. We will be buying even if it goes up to $1000 or more. In the early sixties I was filling up the tank at 65 paise a liter. Today it is Rs.65 and more. Who cares? There are cars on the road more than hundred times now than it was immediately after the Second World War. If you stop oil and it uses; what will happen to the followers of all the IPL matches and tamasha. No Cheer Leaders or Sundaries? Don't be cruel. Many of the IPL followers will resort to other entertainments ! Consequences will be disastrous

Reflections : I have full confidence in our own kind....if and when we are reduced to tht state u can be assured tht the human brain will ceaselessly work[36 hrs a day] and come up with something even better than oil...wht is tht saying....aaaah yes 'Necessity is the blah blah ;-D

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Dot Com Bubble II

I am a dinsosaur. I freely admit it. In the heady days of Dot Com Bubble I, it was often said that old foggies didn't "get it", when they stared open mouthed at insane valuations. A decade after that, I still don't "get it". Can somebody explain to me the valuation of $ 8.5 bn for Skype, which Microsoft announced buying a couple of days back.

Skype  still makes no money after being around for a fair bit now. Make no mistake; its an excellent product - I am an unadulterated fan and user of Skype. Its just that most users, and there are millions of them,  use it for free and don't spend a nickel. Skype doesn't make a profit and there's nothing in sight as to how they might make one. A year and a half ago, Skype was sold for less than $ 3bn - what has happened in a year to almost triple that valuation ??

Or take Linked In - a so called business networking site that I abhor. At least it turns a profit. But its turnover is in the low millions. It has just filed for an IPO for a reputed valuation of some $ 3 bn. When you see sales multiples in the region of 10, you ought to do a double take.

The Skype acquisition has every hallmark of the lashings of an alpha male who has been deposed. The most charitable description of Microsoft is that it has lost its mojo. Nothing like a headline grabbing acuisition to try and rediscover it. Especially since it has tons of cash and doesn't know what to do with it.

Couple all this with the atics of Chinese intenet companies that are in unseemly haste to list in the US. And the jaw dropping valuation of Facebook  which I have alluded to before here. It appears Dot Com Bubble II is truly well and underway.

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The voice of an angel

Nature chooses to bless some people in an out of worldly way. It gives a gift so rare and so amazing that other mere mortals can only watch in awe and wonderment. One such recipient of nature's blessing is Sissel - the gift of the voice of an angel.

This blogger is usually tone deaf and musical sensibilities do not invade his rather dour exterior. But occasionally he breaks out into a song , metaphorically that is, like he did here. Today is another such day, a tribute to the amazing voice of Sissel.

Sissel is a Norwegian soprano, who isn't as well known or as classically feted as many others. She is somewhat like Andre Rieu, the subject of the other post referred to earlier. She tends towards the T20 side of classical music rather than the purity of a Test Match. But boy; can she sing- one of the usual comments that I see in her You Tube videos is that if you close your eyes and heard her, you probably would think that you are in the presence of an angel. 

One of her amazing pieces is her contribution to the sound track of Titanic. Contrary to popular belief, Titanic is not all Celine Dion. Listen to this from Sissel and tell me  if you aren't haunted.

Or take this rendering of Silent Night. Gave me goose pimples.

Whatever may be his musical sensibilities, this blogger is a sports nut. In football a self confessed long time supporter of Liverpool. One of his cherished memories is his visit to Anfield, the home of Liverpool FC and swinging and swaying on the Kop belting out Liverpool's anthem - You'll never walk alone.  There are many famous singers who have sung this song. And then there's Sissel. Her rendition of this is on a different plane altogether.

Even if this is not your genre, listen to her. She is Something, with a capital S.

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Sox and smelly feet

Remember the Sarbanes Oxley Act ? The one that was promulgated in the aftermath of Enron. This was supposed to ensure that accounting scandals are greatly minimised. The Act that had every business chief howling that it was draconian , that compliance was putting a huge cost on business, etc etc. Well, it turns out that investors, whom the Act was supposed to protect, actually don't care all that much about accounting scandals.

Take the case of the "success" of many of the Chinese IPOs in the US market. In the fine print , most of them have disclosed accounting deficiencies. But does the market care ?? Not one bit. Take Renren which IPOed yesterday. The stock rose some 50% above the issue price. Never mind that the Chair of the Audit Committee resigned on Tuesday, they changed a key growth figure, they disclosed a "material weakness" that they did not have enough people in their accounts department and a "significant deficiency" that they had no policy on the treasury function and investment of cash.

Material weakness and accounting deficiency are Ramamritham speak. The former means the accounts are definitely wrong. The latter means that it is most probably wrong.

And yet investors seem to care two hoots. These days anything with a China name will sell like crazy. Even if they presented their accounts in Chinese and qualified it by saying that they just made it up to satisfy a legal formality.

Even the famed General Motors IPO showed a material weakness in the accounts. Didn't come in the way of its much touted success.

I am sure that the Public Companies Accounting Oversight Board ( what other name can you expect Ramamritham to dream of), that was supposed to regulate auditors under the Sarbanes Oxley Act has done enough research to prove that disclosures of accounting weaknesses have had a positive correlation to the share price and therefore they should be considered as having done great benevolence to the human race. It is probably true - the research finding that is. But as long as cases like Renren exist, its hard to take Sarbanes Oxley seriously.

Sure Sox, does reveal smelly feet. But if gorgeous blondes find smelly feet sexy, there's not much that can be done about it.

Disclosure : This blogger has made merry with the aforesaid Act; making a fair bit of money for his company from it. His opinions are therefore completely biased.

Material Weakness : This post is utterly without research, written on a whim and totally opinionated.

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Watch out; Big Brother is watching

Readers of the blog are perhaps too young to have read George Orwell's 1984. Its a fictional novel about a totalitarian future state where every individual is completely monitored and controlled. In fact the term Big Brother, originated in this novel. Well, here's news for you. Big Brother has indeed arrived - just 27 years late.

If you hadn't heard, both Apple and Google are accused of recording and monitoring cellphone locations. Since none of us would move 4 inches from our cellphone henceforth in our lives, surely BB knows where we are and what we are doing. Privacy advocates are up in arms.

I come from a different point of view. Is Google and Apple mad enough to want to be tracking my colourful life. That I leave for office exactly at 8.04 in the morning. That I spend the whole day like an idiot in the office. And that I come straight back home. And then go nowhere else. Leading a totally colourless life.  Earth shattering information.

Take Gils for instance. We don't need Big Brother to tell us that he spends 2 hours one way commuting to his office and that on weekends he is seen at Devikala watching the latest Tamil flick. In between, he is never more than 2 metres from his mother - constantly nagging her for treats from the kitchen. Or take Hopfrog. That he is cooling his heels at home waiting for the snows to melt after which he can be seen somewhere on the PCT - he has very helpfully posted a map of his thru hike route. 

No, I cannot allow  the geeks at Apple and Google discover my highly exciting life. I am therefore going on a drive in a  random direction for an hour - I can imagine BB, puzzling as to what I am upto now. I shall also switch off the mobile now and then to fool them into believing that I am catching flights regularly. I shall download some app or the other than will confuse BB into believing that I am actually located in Ougadougou - if you are wondering where that is, its in Burkina Faso. I shall also pass by some many starred hotels and stand outside the gate, so that BB believes I am fine dining with a gorgeous member of the female species. When Akon lands in town, as he did a week or so ago, I shall lend my phone to a much tattooed, ear pierced, red streaky haired individual of indeterminate sex so that BB thinks I am cool going to such events.

Cut to Steve Jobs and Larry Page, They are presiding over an emergency Board Meeting, convened to debate on what I am upto. Why am I leading such a breathtaking life, when they themselves are not. Their own cell phone tracking is showing that they spend 14 hours at the office and 10 hours at home. How can I be having such fun.  How do I manage to be in Ougadougou and in Marathahalli on the same day. The mystery has to be solved.

Expecting to met an emissary of BB quite soon. Meanwhile I'm off to Toscano,  to lunch with a Prince - I can imagine BB scratching its head wondering what a teetotaler is doing in a wine bar ?

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Vanity thy name is Chinese internet company

Why does a Chinese internet company wish to get listed in the US ? I can't fathom the logic. Hence this post.

The Chinese internet landscape is a strange one. Almost every one of the global majors is blocked. Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, Blogger, you name it and it is blocked. Instead there is a carbon copy of each one of them locally in Chinese. For Google, read Baidu. For Facebook, read Renren, for YouTube read Youku or Tudou, for Twitter read Sina Weibo or the dozens of similar clones. These are the ones that are wildly popular, having millions of users, only in Chinese and therefore almost exclusively used by Chinese. Never mind that these  are all censored , watched, bullied, etc etc by the jīndùn gōngchéng (The Great Firewall). This post is not about that cursed censorship.

These sites are all by entrepreneur led start up companies , similar to the American originals.  And they all want to list and make huge money. Fair enough. But they seem to want to list in the US. Qihoo 360 (an antivirus company) and 21 Vianet (a hosting service provider), recently listed. Renren is next on line. As is Tudou. Why O Why ?

Its fair that you want to list in the market which can give you the highest IPO price. These days valuation of a company rarely depends on where it is listed. You want to list in the market that is most liquid. The Nasdaq is the most liquid market for such companies in the world. But for the size of these companies, there is enough liquidity in virtually any major market. You would list in a place where your major customers are (the reason why Indian software companies are all listed in the US), as this is a significant weapon in a sales pitch. But none of these Chinese companies are targeting the US - Americans are not going to learn Chinese in a hurry.

Consider the downsides. You fall into the dreaded ambit of the Sarbanes Oxley Act, although that tiger is looking rather old and the canine is decaying. You need corporate governance standards that are going to be a real challenge to meet for Chinese companies. You open yourself to requirements of transparency that sit uncomfortably in China. The possibility of getting sued always exists - Renren hasn't even listed and already noise is being created that the prospectus is misleading.

There is the obvious alternative for these companies - Hong Kong. Highly liquid market, excellent valuations to be got, internationally respected, but without the major downsides such as the Sarbanes Oxley Act. And they can speak Chinese in Hong Kong, although the mainlanders scorn at the Hong Kongese attempts at Mandarin.

All this is of course well known to the entrepreneurs - they are brilliant businessmen after all. So why do they then plunge into the US market. I think the answer is Vanity. Perhaps their own as well as the vanity of the Chinese government which would like to quote large numbers of Chinese companies being listed in the US. Vanity stroked by greedy investment bankers, is probably the cause of this bull rush. Its a dangerous substance to introduce into the jungle of business. But then, its always been there and perhaps always will be. After all, businessmen are human beings first.

With due apologies to Shakespeare for plagiarising the title of this post. Although he wrote in Hamlet , Frailty, thy name is woman, in popular usage Vanity is often the attributed womanly quality in the quote. As a parting jab at the multitude (?) of incredibly beautiful women who throng this  space :) perhaps that juxtaposition is not entirely misplaced ! I am taking cover !!

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Taxing Times

The season for tax returns is just over in the US. Its just beginning in India. Appropriate time to rave and rant on the nonsensically complex process of making out a tax return. No, I am not a tea party activist (I drink coffee and in any case, I wouldn't be seen dead with that rabble). I am just venting steam ahead of having to sit down and do the damned thing. Thankfully I only have to do an Indian tax return, but that is torture enough.

Everybody knows that the famed Ramamritham absolutely loves Income Tax. Great opportunity for framing fiendish rules and impossibly complicated forms to fill. Just consider the following evidence.

The first problem is to decide what form to fill. There are no less than 8 different forms you can fill. It all depends on whether you are a HUF or a BOI or a AOP. What if you can't figure out what those are and if you figure you are just a human being ??? Not sure - In Ramamritham's lexicon, normal human beings don't exist. 

With delicious irony, he has designed a from called Saral for dullheads like you and me (OK OK, just me). Saral in Hindi means easy.  Never mind that the form appears to be intelligible only to a rocket scientist. When somebody pointed out this irony to him, he promptly renamed it Sahaj, which is just a complicated form of the same thing - simple !!

Of course the normal calendar  is just too "saral". So came the innovation of April to March. For that we have to thank Sir Humphrey Appleby, forerunner and idol to Ramamritham. Something as simple as a calendar year is of course anathema to these venerable gentlemen.

He expects you to fill the return for something called "the previous year to the assessment year". So the assessment year is supposed to be the next year into the future so that you can file the return for the previous year !! I am now supposed to file the return for assessment year 2011-12, declaring income for the previous year 2010-11, corresponding to my financial year which is also 2010-11. Whoever dreamed of this concept deserves the highest accolade of Ramamrithamology.

As for the Form itself, I defy any sane human being (Chartered Accountants are not classified as sane! ) to be able to fill even one item. Other than the question, are you male or female, that is. Take this one for example.

"Long- term capital gain where proviso under section 112(1) is applicable (Without Indexation)-Code in SI Schedule is 22, Tax Rate is 10% ;Enter only positive value from Item B4c of Schedule CG AFTER loss adjustment under this category in Schedule CYLA and BFLA, if any. "

One of the fundamental principles of any legal system anywhere in the world is Ignorantia juris non excusat (Ignorance of law is no excuse). Somebody should file a case saying this principle has been breached by the Indian tax law - surely human brains haven't evolved to the point where they can begin to understand the Income Tax Form.

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